Middle overs could turn the contest

Sri Lanka thrashed New Zealand in the Super Eight game earlier in the tournament, and while New Zealand have every chance of turning it around on Tuesday, Sri Lanka's all-round bowling attack gives them the edge going into the semi-final. There is little to separate the two teams, though, going by current form or by their World Cup record against each other - they've both won five and lost two in this tournament, and they're tied at 3-3 in six World Cup meetings.

A look at the stats for the two teams during the Super Eight stage of this tournament suggests that both are closely matched - Sri Lanka have done slightly better at the start - averaging more runs per wicket at a better scoring rate - but New Zealand have trumped them at the end, averaging nearly one extra run per over in the last ten, and scoring more runs per wicket too.

In the bowling department, Sri Lanka shade the beginning and the end, but New Zealand are marginally better in the middle overs. Which itself is a surprise, for Sri Lanka have the considerable Muttiah Muralitharan in their ranks, who bowls almost exclusively during the middle overs.

While much has been made of the Shane Bond factor - and it will admittedly be huge - how the two teams tackle the middle overs could well decide the match. It's especially interesting to note that Sri Lanka's batsmen have been the strongest between overs 21 and 40 - averaging almost 55 per wicket and close to five per over. New Zealand's bowlers too have been most successful during that passage, conceding just 24 per wicket and 4.26 per over. Mahela Jayawardene and co. versus Daniel Vettori and the rest of the attack promises to be a fascinating contest.

The next two tables offer a more detailed look at the strengths of the two teams in the middle overs - New Zealand's bowling and Sri Lanka's batting. Bond has provided the breakthrough almost every time he has been called up by Stephen Fleming, but the rest of the bowling during this period has been exceptional as well.

Similarly Sri Lanka's middle order has been superb too, with Jayawardene's return to form making a significant difference, while Chamara Silva's controlled aggression has been a huge factor too.

At the start, in the middle, and during the slog, Bond has been a tower of strength for New Zealand. He has taken wickets at every stage, and, equally importantly, has given little away. The pace might have dropped slightly, but that's only made him more effective.

Sri Lanka's batsmen, though, can take comfort from the fact that historically they've handled Bond pretty well - their openers, Upul Tharanga and Sanath Jayasuriya, have both tackled Bond with plenty of success, with Tharanga not being dismissed by him even once. His form in the tournament hasn't been impressive, however - an average of 24.33 in nine games - and with Bond in devastating mood, it'll take a brave man to bet against an early wicket.

If Sri Lanka have Bond to contend with, then New Zealand won't relish facing Chaminda Vaas either. He has been in impeccable form with the new ball, averaging less than 18 per wicket, and conceding less than 3.5 per over.

One batsman who will surely not relish the prospect of facing him is Fleming - in his last four innings versus Sri Lanka, he has been lbw to Vaas for a duck. He has been dismissed by Vaas 11 times in ODI, and seven times since July 2001, during which period his average against him is a paltry 5.71.

If New Zealand get through the Vaas menace without too much damage, they'll still not be safe - next up will be the unappetising prospect of dealing with Muralitharan's offspinners and doosras. As the table below shows, he has been as destructive during the middle overs as Vaas has been during the start.

And unlike Bond, who hasn't had as much success against the Sri Lankan frontline batsmen, Muralitharan has had plenty of success against the New Zealanders. Craig McMillan, Brendan McCullum, the hapless Fleming and Oram all average less than ten against him.