Numbers point to an Australian hat-trick

Their only encounter in the World Cup turned out to be a drab, one-sided washout with Sri Lanka resting key players, but that was only a Super Eights game, with nothing except pride at stake. On Saturday, with a whole lot more on the line, expect plenty more passion and fire from the Sri Lankans. If both teams play to potential, this match could even give us the classic last-over finish that this World Cup desperately needs.

The individual match-ups indicate each team has the firepower to test the other. However, recent ODIs between the two teams suggests another fairly straightforward victory for Australia - in 13 meetings since the last World Cup, Australia have won nine. In only three of those 13 games the victory margin has been less than 25 runs or four wickets, but Sri Lanka won the three times when the matches became close.

Not only have Australia been scarily dominant in this tournament, they've also turned the screw with chilling efficiency in their last two World Cup finals, turning both of them into no-contests very early in the piece.

So what will Sri Lanka need to pull off an upset win? For a start, they'll need conditions to be in their favour. The pitch in Barbados offered plenty of bounce and pace during the Super Eights games, which should suit the Australians perfectly: in 39 matches against Sri Lanka Australia, South Africa and England - venues which usually assist fast bowlers - Australia have won 32 and lost seven. (Click here for a summary of ODIs between these two teams.) Add to that Australia's dominance at neutral venues - seven wins, one defeat - and Sri Lanka have an uphill task. They might do well to remember, though, that their only victory in neutral territory was in a game as important as this one - the 1996 World Cup final at Lahore, which is also their only win in six World Cup clashes against Australia.

The table below further underscores how vital a factor the conditions could be: at home all the Australian batsmen have enjoyed themselves against Sri Lanka; when overseas they haven't all been as successful.

The Sri Lankan batsmen, on the other hand, have generally struggled against Australia. Kumar Sangakkara has been the exception, but Sanath Jayasuriya, especially, has been a huge disappointment. In 42 games he has only five fifty-plus scores, and a poor average of 22.07.

Among the Australian bowlers, the focus will obviously be on the farewell-boy Glenn McGrath, but if past records are anything to go by Nathan Bracken is the one that Sri Lanka's batsmen will have to watch out for. In eight games against them, Bracken has taken 21 wickets at a fantastic average of 13.47, and an economy rate of less than four. It's unlikely the Sri Lankan batsmen would have forgotten what he's capable of - less than two weeks back, Bracken destroyed them with figures of 4 for 19 in 9.4 overs. Included among his victims was Jayasuriya, who has had an especially torrid time against him.

As you'd expect Chaminda Vaas and Muttiah Muralitharan have taken lots of wickets against Australia, but they haven't come as cheaply as they usually do. Vaas concedes more than 35 per wicket, and even Murali's average touches 30. Significantly, the Australians have played Muralitharan pretty well recently. Since 2004, he averages 36 runs per wicket against them, and goes at nearly five per over. Included among those games was the VB Series final at Sydney in February 2006, when Murali was thrashed for 99 from ten overs, his most expensive ODI spell.

Muralitharan has usually been the key to Sri Lanka's success during the middle overs, but the Australians in general - and Ponting in particular - have tackled him quite well.

Both Australia and Sri Lanka have had a strong tournament with both bat and ball, which is reflected in the next couple of tables. Sri Lanka's batting has been pretty good, but even they can't compare with what Hayden, Ponting and co. have achieved in this tournament. They have lost only 39 wickets in the ten games they have played, and their average runs per wicket in the first 40 overs touches 80. Even in the last ten, they are well ahead of Sri Lanka, who have lost 62 wickets in this tournament. The batting points clearly go to Australia, and the openers have played a huge role in that. Matthew Hayden and Adam Gilchrist have averaged 65.87 for the first wicket, which is almost twice the 33.10 that Jayasuriya and Upul Tharanga have managed.

The bowling stats are a whole lot closer. Australia have taken 95 wickets to Sri Lanka's 87, but Sri Lanka have been as effective through the first 40 overs of matches, with Muralitharan being especially dangerous during the middle overs: between 21 and 40, he has taken 16 wickets at an average of 11.43 and an economy rate of 3.46. As the Numbers Game points out, Brad Hogg has run him close in the tournament, and he has been as effective in the middle overs too, taking 15 wickets at 13, and an economy rate of 3.63. The bowling attacks of both teams have been outstanding, suggesting that the batsmen might not have it their way on Saturday.