England ride on the Pietersen factor

If the match between South Africa and England on Tuesday goes the way their four previous completed games went, South Africa will sail through and occupy the last semi-finalist's spot, while England's less-than-impressive World Cup campaign will come to an end. In 34 previous ODIs between the two teams South Africa have a convincing 21-11 advantage, but exclude the 18 games in South Africa, and both teams have won eight games each.

The last time the two sides met was more than two years back, and while the South Africans swept to a 4-1 win, England gained considerably too - it was the first time Kevin Pietersen announced himself as a high-class international batsman. He averaged a staggering 151.33 in that series, and he'll again be the key batsman for England on Tuesday. Not only have most of the other England batsmen struggled for runs in this tournament, they also have a poor record against South Africa. Michael Vaughan's numbers are better than his career stats, but Paul Collingwood - the other in-form batsman for England in this tournament - has been a huge disappointment against South Africa, with a highest score of 40 in five innings.

The table below indicates just how comprehensively Pietersen dominated the South African bowlers in 2004-05. Among the bowlers currently in the South African squad, only Andre Nel and Andrew Hall dismissed him, and even they weren't able to staunch the runs.

South Africa have relied on the trio of Jacques Kallis, Graeme Smith and Herschelle Gibbs for the runs, but none of them have had outstanding success against England. Kallis and Gibbs, especially, have significantly poorer numbers against them than against other sides.

Both teams have a dodgy opening pair - Vaughan, Ed Joyce and Andrew Strauss have all been woefully out of form, while AB de Villiers has four ducks in eight innings. In seven games that England have played so far, on six occasions the first wicket has fallen before 15, while South Africa's top two have only been slightly better - two hundred stands but a next-best of 21, and four stands of less than five. Those numbers suggest both teams will be sniffing early success with the ball, but South Africa have recovered from early setbacks quicker and better than England, thanks largely to Kallis's solid presence at No.3 - the average third-wicket partnership for South Africa in this tournament is 72.62; for England the corresponding average is only 29.

With Gibbs in excellent form as well, South Africa's batting has a far more impressive look to it than England's, who will again rely hugely on Pietersen (341 runs at 56.83 in the World Cup) and Collingwood (240 runs at 60). In the last ten overs, though, England have been boosted hugely by the presence of Paul Nixon, who has averaged 51.33 and has scored at a run a ball. (Click here for England's batting and bowling averages in this World Cup, and here for South Africa's.)

England's bowlers have done much better at the start of the innings than their batsmen, restricting the opposition opening partnerships to an average of 24.78. England's problem, though, has been penetration through the middle overs - they concede almost 50 runs per wicket at close to five an over.

For the South Africans, on the other hand, the big setback so far has been the form of their new-ball bowlers - four of Shaun Pollock's seven wickets have come against the non-Test-playing teams, while Ntini's six have cost him nearly 50 apiece. If both bring to the table the form they have usually displayed against England - Pollock averages 21 per wicket and 3.40 per over in 29 games, while Ntini has 19 wickets from 11 games and averages 22.47 - England will have their hands full.