On this form, Australia will win the Ashes

At last, a Champions Trophy has gone according to form. In the end Australia were as far ahead of every other team as they were at the last World Cup. West Indies defied gravity once against them, and threatened to repeat the feat for 45 minutes or so yesterday, but when they fell to earth, as is their wont, they really crashed.

Australia’s victory doesn’t necessarily mean the Ashes will be theirs. We keep being reminded of how England beat Australia in the Champions Trophy of 2004 before their Ashes triumph, but people seem to have forgotten that the last thing that happened between the two sides before the Ashes of 2005 was a three-match one-day series which Australia won quite comfortably. And Test cricket is a half-different game, perhaps more so for England, because they are hopeless at one-dayers and good at Tests: paupers in one form, pretenders to the crown in the other.

But if Australia play as well against England as they have in India, they will regain the Ashes. They have resolved virtually all the doubts about their selection. Shane Watson has done enough with bat and ball to be a genuine prospect at number six, rather than a punt. Glenn McGrath is his old self again, expressing himself far more eloquently with the ball than he does with his tedious point-scoring jibes. And Mitchell Johnson, if he gets the call as third seamer, is going to be a lot harder to belt for five an over than Gillespie, Kasprowicz and Tait were last time. 
For England, there is still hope that everything will fall into place on November 23. Their convalescents will be fitter: Andrew Flintoff, the team's double fulcrum now, was far stronger and less rusty in the third game in India than the first. The bits-and-pieces players will be gone and Monty Panesar will be back. Surely not even Duncan Fletcher could think of dropping him for a half-fit Ashley Giles.

Marcus Trescothick should be back too, and Andrew Strauss will be in his element. Steve Harmison will have had more time to rummage through his suitcase for his radar. And Australia will have had an injection of age, with Hayden, Langer and Warne, all old enough now to play in Masters Cricket, replacing Symonds, Clarke and Hogg. But when you find yourself viewing the return of Warne as a plus, you know you’re clutching at straws. Australia are even firmer favourites now, and England’s most realistic aim, although you won't hear them saying so, is a 2-2 draw. Which would be a very good result.