Watson and Haddin at the precipice

Late in the day, Ben Stokes kneeled to play a second reverse sweep to Nathan Lyon. A bottom edge bounced near his boot and rebounded out to Michael Clarke at slip. Behind Stokes, Brad Haddin appealed with vigour, compelling the umpires to confer and ask for a replay. But before they had done so, Haddin was already waving them away and returning to his position. He knew, not for the first time this match, that he had got things quite wrong.

It was that sort of day for Haddin, who alongside Shane Watson had in the morning represented Australia's best hope of staying in the first Investec Ashes match after a maddeningly wasteful first innings by the top five batsmen on the second afternoon. The hope Australia had for Haddin was epitomised by the fact that a nightwatchman was spared for him in the final 11 minutes of day two - in days gone by Ian Healy, now commentating, had been a nightwatchman himself.

But the faith invested in Haddin and also Watson was based more on history than recent evidence. Haddin's record in Ashes matches is universally strong, but since a rollicking 2013-14 he has seemingly used up all the luck he rode over those five matches. Watson continues to be chosen more for what he might do with the bat (score a domineering hundred like those at The Oval and Perth in 2013) than what he actually does (have his front pad blown off and fall lbw, as he now has for 28 times in 108 Test innings).

During the West Indies tour, the selector on duty Mark Waugh was asked whether history or recent results carried more weight when he was assessing players. Waugh replied that while yes, history was important, it could not be relied upon too heavily when more relevant evidence was available. On that recent evidence, neither Haddin nor Watson could be expected to stand up under Ashes pressure.

Nor could Australia's tail, so often the source of bail out packages that would sate the people of Greece, be expected to do it again. Mitchell Johnson, Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood and Nathan Lyon are all more than capable, but it is too much to expect them to succeed as batsmen under pressure time and again. That Australia's last six first innings wickets went down for 50 runs was startling next to some of their rescue acts in the past few years, but it was hardly something for which the bowlers could be blamed in the face of excellent work from James Anderson and Mark Wood in particular.

"As bowlers we pride ourselves on batting and making the tail wag so it didn't go to plan," Lyon said. "Hopefully we can work hard in the nets and in practice and come the next opportunity that the tail gets hopefully we can put on a few partnerships. Credit has to be given to England's bowlers this morning. I was out there from ball one and they were exceptional. They didn't give you any width and they were pretty ruthless on their line and length. They out-bowled us this morning but tomorrow is a new day and the sun will come up."

Instead, the onus fell upon others in better form and confidence. David Warner, Steven Smith, Michael Clarke and Adam Voges all had reasons for self-recrimination after the second day, and even Chris Rogers had squandered his innings with a hasty stroke after playing with the utmost composure to that point. Rogers' world record seven half centuries in a row without reaching a hundred was neat, but the standout statistic would be the fact that never before had Nos. 3, 4, 5 and 6 all been dismissed in the dirty 30s.

The coach Darren Lehmann places a premium on first-innings hundreds, and he wore a thunderous expression in Australia's viewing area at times as his team's top order degenerated at the first time of asking. Throughout the afternoon there was a sense, too, that Australia's fielders were lost in their own thoughts, not celebrating wickets with as much excitement as usual, nor even taking every opportunity that came their way. How Haddin, Clarke and others failed to appeal with much vigour at all for a Stokes lbw shout that would have plucked out leg stump will be a mystery as enduring as a Welsh weather forecast.

One thought that would have entered more than a few minds is the presence of a couple of capable understudies on this tour. Mitchell Marsh and Peter Nevill are the men most likely to replace Watson and Haddin in the future, and after this day they may each be in line to have their opportunities brought forward. Marsh was the outstanding batsman of Australia's two warm-up matches, and had his moments with the ball. Nevill was less impressive with the gloves against Essex, but his batting is undoubtedly less flakey than Haddin's has unfortunately become.

Should Australia be defeated here, the tour selectors Lehmann and Rod Marsh will have to consider not only the margin but also the manner in which it took place. Marsh may not yet be Watson's equal as a fourth seam bowling option, but there was precious little evidence on display in Cardiff that the older man's medium pace out swing will provide anything more than a moderate proposition for England's batsmen. Haddin has been the heart - and snarling mouth - of this team for more than five years, but his value is diminishing.

For now, though, there is the faintest hope of a fourth innings revival. Were Australia to be victorious, overtaking a cherished record of the 1948 Invincibles in the process, they would overturn another relevant set of facts: under Lehmann, this is not a team that wins Test matches from behind. Save for the Melbourne Test of 2013-14, they have never been able to overcome a significant first innings deficit and win.

So for all the brio of Lyon, who said "records are made to be broken", it is more sensible to conclude that this team will fall short, and must then use the lessons learned in Cardiff to go on to better displays elsewhere. One such lesson is that the team must rely upon Rogers, Warner, Smith, Clarke and Voges for the bulk of their runs. Watson and Haddin will be there too, but as day three showed, they can no longer be relied upon for match-turning feats.