Glorious batting, erratic bowling

Forty wins in 58 World Cup matches, a win-loss ratio which is by far the best among all teams, two-time defending champion ... Australia, despite their recent five-losses-in-a-row slump, are clearly the team to beat in the 2007 World Cup. They hold the record for most number of consecutive wins in World Cups (12), and most number of matches without a defeat (18). Both are ongoing streaks, and you can be sure they won't let go of either in a hurry. (Click here for their stats in each World Cup, and here for more detailed World Cup records for Australia.)

What will give the rest of the contenders hope is Australia's recent ODI record - though a 13-7 win-loss record in their last 20 matches is a respectable record, they've lost five in a row, and six out of the last seven. Add that to their record in the West Indies - just nine wins and ten defeats in the last 20 games - and it's clear why other teams reckon they have a chance to finally wrest the cup from Australia.

In the recent games, Australia have been particularly vulnerable when defending totals, which is surprising as there was a period between 2001 and 2004 when the Australians were nearly invincible batting first - they lost just five out of 45 games during this period. Compared with those stats, Australia's current numbers are pretty ordinary - five defeats in their last ten ODIs batting first.

As the table below shows, the problem has been the bowling. When the opposition bats first, the Australian attack has usually done a good job of taking wickets and keeping the runs in check. When defending a score, though, they've been a much lesser force, conceding more than 32 runs per wicket and nearly five-and-a-half runs per over.

Australia's main problem when bowling second has been their lack of striking power. The biggest culprit here is Glenn McGrath - when bowling first he has been exceptional, both in terms of average and economy rate. In seven games when Australia have bowled second, though, he has only managed four wickets at a bloated average of 63.

The only bowler who has consistently bowled well when defending a total is Brett Lee - an average of 13.35 at 4.14 runs per over is outstanding - which makes his absence even more vital.

The Numbers Game column a couple of weeks back had pointed out Australia's tendency to leak runs during the slog overs, and if the table below is any indication, Ricky Ponting might struggle to find the men to staunch the flow. In their last 20 games, Australia have conceded 7.33 runs per over with the ball in the last ten overs, and scored at 7.24 during that period.

Bracken concedes just 3.57 runs per over in the first 20, but the rate more than doubles in the last ten. The story is similar for McGrath and Stuart Clark. Ponting's best bet for the slog overs could well be left-armer Mitchell Johnson, whose economy rate in the last ten is marginally better than in the first 20.

The batting is a considerably lesser worry, as is apparent by the partnerships for each wicket. The average stand is more than 35 for each of the first six wickets, while the opposition teams have scored considerably fewer runs.

Most of the Australian batsmen have pretty healthy averages too, but the one worry for Ponting will be the form of Adam Gilchrist. He only averages 23.46, well below his career average of 35.62.